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Huge turnout in Poland's decisive election, highest since 1919_我的网站
一 | 看来，美总统特朗普这次是真急了，接连对朝释放对话信号！ 8月19日，特朗普对外表示，他预计今年11月份在深圳APEC 峰会期间会见朝鲜领导人金正恩。 From 7 a.m. onward Sunday, ballot boxes in Poland started filling up so fast that spare ones had to be dusted off and more ballots needed to be printed. No one had anticipated such long lines throughout the country.Voting was to end at 9 p.m., but by law, polling stations stayed open to accept all who queued up, and the last one closed at 5 a.m. Monday. Some voters braved the night chill for up to eight hours to cast their vote.This resulted in a record turnout of nearly 74% -- highest voter turnout in Poland since 1919 and even higher than that of the first free elections after the fall of communism in 1989.The high turnout confirmed that millions of Poles agree these parliamentary elections may have been the most decisive in the last three decades. Either they would allow the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party to extend its eight-year hold on power for another four-year term, or they would opt for the return of a liberal democracy.Late poll figures univocally indicate that opposition parties stand a realistic chance to form Poland's next government.The PiS conservatives currently in power took 36% of the vote, but that doesn't translate into a seat majority in parliament, which would allow it to form a Cabinet. Latest polls show they would have 196 deputies in the 460-seat legislature as opposed to 249 seats won by the broad Civic Coalition of opposition parties led by Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council.Sunday's vote was a confrontation of two radically different visions of Poland's future.Conditioned by PiS propaganda that has continually been exploiting fears, PiS supporters claim only that party can secure Poland's sovereignty and protect its interests. The threat of illegal migrants is perhaps the most unifying emotion binding the PiS electorate.Supporters see PiS as their only protector from the alleged dominance of European Union bureaucrats in Brussels and their meddling in Polish affairs.PiS voters turn a blind eye to the fact that the country began to drift toward authoritarian rule, authorities neglect the EU's legal norms and the country continues on a collision course with the Union. Some €36 billion of EU COVID pandemic recovery funds have been frozen in a row over PiS judicial reforms. Many observers believe another PiS term would result in Poland leaving the European Union.Germany, Poland's by far most important trade partner and neighbor, is presented as another source of fear and the country is made out to be an ally of Russia, Poland's greatest foe throughout centuries. But if it's not the threat of German capital buying out Polish industry, then it's the threat of moral decay.In order to appeal to radical voters who accuse the government of extending excessive welfare to Ukrainian refugees, authorities cynically strained relations with Kyiv.PiS voters declare the fear that if the party loses, the next government would take away the generous social benefits PiS guaranteed, such as 14 pensions, child care payments and early retirement.Those who Sunday voted for parties forming the anti-PiS coalition declare they voted for a Poland securely rooted in the European Union.In radio and TV street interviews, they say they want to see Poland mend its strained relations with neighbors, particularly Germany and Ukraine.They do not want to see the Catholic Church influencing state affairs.Sixty-four percent of those polled declare they're in favor of same-sex marriages, and 70% want the new government to liberalize the current strict anti-abortion law.It is uncertain whether Poland's new government will be prepared to meet the more liberal postulates voters expect. The potential ruling coalition's unifying factor is its pro-democratic, pro-EU, anti-PiS stance. Other than that, they often differ in their proposed policies and outlook. They're a broad coalition composed of parties spanning from the far left to liberal conservative.The Civic Coalition's clear victory makes it the only faction in parliament able to constitute Poland's new government. But first, Polish President Andrzej Duda, a PiS nominee, will need to designate a prime minister. Most likely, against the odds, he will name a PiS candidate. That candidate will have little realistic chance of being approved by parliament, and Poland may be faced with many weeks of squabbling and chaos. Constitutionalists predict it may not be until December that Poland gets its new government.。 而当有人问到会不会和金正恩谈无核化，他直接跳过问题：“我不想谈那个。但我和金正恩保持着良好关系。” 可转头，他就罕见支出，“金正恩拥有57枚非常强大的核武器”，还说这本来就不该发生。这是特朗普第一次把朝鲜核弹头数量说得这么具体。
二 | 但就在同一天，韩国国防部长安圭伯称，韩国民间机构普遍估算朝鲜有80到120枚核武器，特朗普说的57枚“存在差异”。 当然，安圭伯也承认，情报有限，谁也说不出准确数字，军方评估属于韩美机密不能公开。 那么， 57这个数字到底怎么来的？特朗普没讲，他就是要让新闻标题好看，让选民觉得这总统对美国掌握得清清楚楚。 正如他所表达的，“他是聪明的总统，换作愚蠢的总统就出事了。
三 | ”也就是说，他认为，没有他，朝鲜早就打起来了。 一个大国的总统，把没开战当成自己的政绩挂在嘴边，这说明他手里已经没什么牌可打了。 特朗普为什么挑这个时候爆料？ 中期选举还剩不到三个月。美军在中东陷在消耗战里拔不出来，伊朗硬扛着不低头。特朗普急需一份能摆上台面的外交成绩单，翻来翻去只有“特金会”这张旧牌。 哪怕朝鲜根本没承诺任何新东西，哪怕河内峰会那年闹得不欢而散，他还是要试。
四 | 前几日宣布缩减美韩军演，发条帖子的事儿成本几乎为零，不用过国会，不用花预算。而给朝鲜递话的成本也不高，动动嘴皮子就行。 对于特朗普的说法，朝鲜方面当天就给出了回应。
五 | 朝鲜最高领导人金正恩胞妹金与正发声明，说对特朗普提到的朝美沟通完全不知情，但同时又强调了，金正恩对特朗普“怀有好的回忆”。 这番表态等于告诉美国：官方渠道我们不认，但私人交情可以留个口子。 金与正名义上是劳动党中央副部长，实际就是金正恩的代言人。她没把门关死，说明平壤也在等华盛顿下一步的条件。 特朗普想拿“我们关系好”当筹码，金正恩那边不拒绝也不接招，只是把球轻轻踢了回来。 但朝鲜的动作比语言更直接。
六 | 20日下午5点左右，韩国军方侦测到朝鲜从平壤一带向东部海域一口气发射了10多枚短程弹道导弹，飞行距离超过300公里。这是8月以来第三次发射，前两次各打了一枚，这次直接翻十倍。 这也是告诉各方：半岛事务的主导权不在美韩，朝鲜自己才是关键。 从河内到深圳，美朝之间的死结其实一直没变。特朗普想要的是外交场面和金正恩的握手照片，金正恩要的是制裁松动、国际承认和安全保证。 57枚也好，80到120枚也罢，数字本身不解决任何问题。
七 | 朝鲜这次用十枚导弹把话说白了：几句话和一次缩水军演，换不来朝鲜放下筹码。 APEC今年11月18到19日在深圳办，中国是东道主。美国过去谈朝核总想绕开中国，现在却想借中国主场捞见面机会。这不等于中国会去当中间人。 外交部发言人只回了一句“不掌握具体信息，不作评论”。意思很明确：美朝关系我们不掺和。 说白了，特朗普这轮操作，本质上还是一场政治秀。未来半岛局势的关键，其实不在于一次峰会能不能开成，而在于各方能不能转向建立可持续的危机管理机制。
八 | 半岛问题的死结从来不在于见不见面，而在于见面后能不能谈成实际成果。特朗普不肯松动制裁，金正恩不肯先弃核，想谈成很难。 朝鲜核武库扩大，导弹发射频次上升，韩美军演缩减但没停……现在的半岛局势显然更复杂。
九 | 特朗普想靠私人关系压住这一摊，几乎不可能。返回，查看更多。
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